Does the farmer have reason to complain now? Is your discomfort about prices justified? Will cereal go up? The answer to the first questions is … Yes, now that cereal prices will rise, the focus is on the war conflict, on Trump and Iran.
Why do you have reason to complain? The cereal campaign is being disastrous in terms of prices and profitability. This, despite the great hopes placed on this harvest based on productions that were similar to those obtained in 2020 in Castilla y LeĂłn, which was the best in the last 15 years. Although production was accompanied by a better than usual harvest, it has not been enough due to the low price.
Now, about two months before the start of the new harvest, the farmer finds that at no time during the year was he able to obtain a decent profit for the grain he sold. In the case of wheat, and with the cost study commissioned by the Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development of the Junta de Castilla y LeĂłn, with the 2024-25 campaign report, saving costs implies on average in Salamanca selling at 198 euros/ton and obtaining a 10% profit, which will reach 219.
This has never happened since July 2025, the general start of the harvest, until today: the maximum price at which, with the reference of the Salamanca Market, farmers have been able to sell their wheat was 208 euros/ton in mid-March. The aforementioned study commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture points to a production cost in Salamanca of 831.37 euros/hectare. With an estimated average yield of 4,205 kilos per hectare this campaign, at that maximum of 208 euros/ton the farmer obtained a profit of 43 euros for each cultivated hectare.
In the case of barley, the costs in Salamanca estimated in the aforementioned study reach 867.33 euros per hectare. With a high yield, unusually higher than that of wheat, of 4,369 kilos per hectare on average, the maximum profit obtained by the farmer has been 24 euros per hectare. This happened if he sold in mid-March, when barley reached its maximum campaign price, for now, of 204 euros per ton.
Why are farmers so worried? Faced with this situation, concern is growing in the countryside, now that farmers face a 2025-2026 harvest with higher costs and in which they find it difficult to achieve productions as high as those of last season. In addition, there is still grain in storage and the Salamanca Market closed its last session with a new drop.
And the cereal merchants? In the commercial sector, there is concern about the lack of profitability of the harvest in the field, which makes them fear a decrease in the cereal area and, especially, corn, due to the price of urea. Agricultural organizations call to help the farmer, but also this sector, at this time. Marcos MartĂnez, president of the Cereal and Oilseed Trade Association (ACCOE), emphasizes the need for “the first and most important link in the chain to have a benefit. “It is a strategic sector for Castilla y LeĂłn and Spain.” It advocates “implementing” measures “so that it has benefit and profitability, cost reduction, increased income” and points to the European fertilization program. “It is important that the ratio between sale and purchase of fertilizers can be assumed and that the farms are viable,” he points out.
How has the week been at the markets? Again of descents. Of cuts in barley, wheat or corn, with marketing at a minimum, just a few months before the start of the harvest and with warehouses full. The conviction is increasing that those who have not already sold will not do so either, although there has been more supply in the market. There is also no great need to buy at the gates of the new grain, which contributes to the declines. Added to this is the arrival of ships with wheat. The decreases have generally ranged between 1 and 3 euros per ton, although in Extremadura it even reached 5.
Will the price of cereal rise? Here the focus is on the war, on Iran and on Trump. Marcos MartĂnez, president of the Cereal and Oilseed Trade Association (ACCOE), is clear that “if cereal prices rise, it will be because of energy.” And he explains it: he points out that in the war in Ukraine oil, fertilizers, diesel and grain rose. «But now – he adds – the cereal does not rise: the mechanism is imperfect. If energy remains high, cereal prices would rise in the medium term: first corn and then the rest of the cereals. He explains it in that the cereal is used to obtain bioethanol. If the barrel of oil rises and is high for a period, the demand for bioethanol would increase: first for corn, and then for the rest of the cereals.
When was the best time to have sold out the cereal? Based on the prices of the Salamanca Agricultural Market, last month. March was when wheat reached 208 euros/ton and barley, 204, although the benefit for the farmer (based on the costs of the study commissioned by the Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Rural Development of the Regional Government of Castilla y LeĂłn) was minimal: 43 euros per hectare and 24, respectively.
ACCOE always recommends that farmers sell at various times during the campaign but recognizes that the advice this year has not been useful due to the “flat” market throughout the campaign.
How is this 2025-26 campaign going? With stocks cereal highs and a good harvest forecast in the northern hemisphere, according to data held by ACCOE. “It looks good,” says Marcos MartĂnez. He is concerned about the possible reduction in corn surface area due to the sharp rise in urea. He predicts a drop in cereal consumption due to the decrease in the pig census and also in the area, of 2-3%, but calls for waiting for data.
